World Bank Warns: Poverty to Rise in Nigeria by 3.6% Through 2027

Abuja, Nigeria — The World Bank has projected a grim outlook for Nigeria’s fight against poverty, forecasting a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty rates by 2027, despite recent gains in the country’s non-oil economy.

The warning came via the Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse Report, presented during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report noted.

---

🇳🇬 Why Is Nigeria at Risk?

While Nigeria saw some growth in non-oil sectors in late 2024, the underlying issues of overdependence on oil and persistent national fragility are expected to severely limit progress in poverty alleviation.

The report identifies Nigeria as one of several resource-rich but structurally weak nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, where governance challenges continue to hinder sustainable development.

---

🌍 The Regional Picture

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of global extreme poverty, home to 80% of the world’s 695 million poorest people in 2024, according to the World Bank.

Within this region:

• Just four countries house over half of the region’s extreme poor
• In contrast, non-resource-rich countries are reducing poverty faster thanks to booming agricultural exports

---

💡 Key Insights

• Resource-rich fragile states, like Nigeria, are projected to suffer the highest poverty rates, averaging 46% in 2024
• That’s 13 percentage points higher than more stable, resource-rich nations
• Economic inequality and lack of inclusive growth models are worsening the divide

---

🔧 What Needs to Change?

The World Bank recommends that Nigeria:

• ✅ Strengthen fiscal management to avoid revenue leakage
• ✅ Build a stronger “fiscal contract” with citizens for accountability and trust
• ✅ Diversify the economy by investing in agriculture, technology, and services
• ✅ Enhance social safety nets and direct support for vulnerable populations

---

🗣️ Nigerians React

With inflation at record highs and the cost of living spiraling out of control, many Nigerians are already feeling the pinch.

“We don’t need a World Bank report to tell us we’re suffering,” said Mary Akpan, a market trader in Lagos. “But we do need our leaders to start acting.”

---

📉 Final Word

This projection comes as a wake-up call to policymakers. If Nigeria does not act now to tackle the root causes of poverty, the next few years could see millions more Nigerians plunged below the poverty line.

The choice is clear: reform now—or risk an even deeper crisis.